A | 本文来自微信公众号：财联社 （ID：cailianpress），作者：潇湘 20世纪60年代初，“股神”巴菲特曾做出过购买白银的精明举动，因为他当时认为美国已不再具备铸造银币的经济可行性。 "Given that energy is the lifeline of modern economies, modern economic growth patterns, there are not that many alternatives available and there are only a few countries that are players in the global energy market. Russia certainly cannot be counted out and Russia cannot be marginalized in the global energy landscape," says Harsh V. Pant, professor of international relations at the King's College London India Institute and director of the strategic studies program at the Observer Research Foundation.,International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol and US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm on 12 July urged Indo-Pacific countries at the Sydney Energy Forum to diversify their supply chains for energy and critical minerals to reduce "dependency" on Russia over its special operation in Ukraine, as well as on China.,"At a time when the energy prices are going up and affecting some of the poorest and most vulnerable countries around the world very significantly, I think Asian countries will continue to cooperate with Russia in order to support their economies and their domestic requirements," says Pant.,He explains that dealing with Russia has become an economic imperative at a time of energy crunch given that Moscow is offering discounted oil to a number of countries. Furthermore, maintaining economic relations with Russia is a question of survival and the people's well-being for some Asian nations and countries of the Global South, according to the professor. Under these circumstances it's highly unlikely that they will succumb to the pressure from Washington and sever ties with Russia, he says.,"For political leaders across the world, at a time when economies are just beginning to grow after the long COVID pandemic, they can [not] afford a lack of energy and higher energy prices," Pant stresses.,Russia, Venezuela to Expand Oil Sector Cooperation, Working on Pact to Circumvent Western Sanctions4 July, 11:15 GMT,Anti-Russia Sanctions: India and EU Approaches,To illustrate his point, the professor cites India's approach to Russia's affairs and the Ukraine crisis. New Delhi continues to import energy from Russia despite the US and Europe urging India to join sweeping anti-Russia sanctions.,"What we have seen in the last two months is a gradual, significant increase in what India is buying from Russia when it comes to oil," the professor says. "This is particularly relevant again because Russia has offered India discounted oil and India's economic requirements demand that India continues buying this oil. The challenges facing India's population mean that the Indian leadership has an incentive in continuing to engage with Russia on this question.",At the same time, the European Union's decision to slap sanctions on Russia and slash energy supplies from the country have backfired on Europe's economy, sending fuel prices up and accelerating inflation.,"We have seen how Europe is struggling to reduce its dependence and the kind of costs that it is imposing on Europeans," says Pant. "Most Asian countries would be reluctant to go down that route.",Brussels: Anti-Russia Sanctions Raise Questions About Sustainability of EU's Financial Model 10 June, 08:44 GMT,The disruptions in the supply of crude after the imposition of ban on imports from Russia have given a dramatic boost to energy prices and inflation, echoes Suranjali Tandon, assistant professor at the Delhi-based National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.,"The current inflationary trends are the most serious challenge for policy makers," she says. "Central banks around the world have begun the process of unwinding loose monetary policy… The current inflation rates have led to internal economic strains and as seen in Sri Lanka, a political upheaval. The cooperation between Russia and Asian countries may be economically prudent.",Moreover, major Asian economies – India and China – are ready to absorb crude supplies from Russia rejected by the West, according to her.,At the same time, Washington's plan to force Asian states to join anti-Russia sanctions is fraught with severe risks for the global economy, Tandon warns.,"The ban, if carried out by other Asian economies, will further cut off supplies of refined petroleum and related products," she says. "This could lead to an unmanageable inflationary spiral while depressing global growth.",Lithium, Gold & Rare Earths: How China May Open the Door to New Business Opportunities for Afghans19 August 2021, 08:38 GMT,Are There Alternatives to Russia & China?,According to Tandon, India sets an important precedent for other Asian states by withstanding the US pressure when it comes to energy sanctions against Russia. By doing this, India is defending its internal interests in the first place, the professor underscores.,She hails the idea that single technology or fuel dependence should be avoided. This principle could be applied to Russia, China, or Western countries in a similar way. However, when the West is calling upon Asian nations to shift to wind, solar, and even nuclear power and abandon fossil fuels, it's clear that this shift cannot be done immediately, the professor emphasizes.,Even after the "green" transition, Asian states and the Global South are likely to maintain ties with Russia and China, who have been developing cutting-edge nuclear technologies and mining rare earths needed for producing electric batteries and electronic components.,"Russia's energy supplies will remain globally important," Tandon forecasts. "More importantly, even when this transition does take place the natural resources including minerals used as inputs in renewables will be concentrated in countries like China. China produces 63% of the world’s rare earth elements, including 45% of molybdenum as per IEA, so it's unclear what countries must do to expand alternatives while being under pressure to transition quickly."。 当时，10美分、25美分和50美分硬币的含银量高达90%，这些硬币的金属价值(或熔化价值)接近其面值。事实证明，巴菲特是对的，因为随着银价上涨，美国政府最终于1965年停止发行了含银量高达90%的硬币。
B | 而如今，一位“巴菲特的模仿者”声称，他正在对有着“镍币”之称的5美分硬币做同样的事情…… 押宝镍与铜？ 是的，就在本月早些时候黄金和白银价格双双创下历史新高之际，现年35岁的金融从业者凯尔·米切尔(Kyle Mitchell)却并未完全“迷信”这两种贵金属，反而把目光放到了工业用途更为广泛的几类基本金属上——而且，他还采取了一条更是独特的途径来实现“保值”目标：囤积硬币。 据米切尔介绍，他目前已经囤积了价值25万美元的美国铸币局铸造的五美分镍币——作为“通胀对冲工具”。他透露，目前他将所有这些硬币都存放在美国某处他150英亩农场的一个独立车库里。由于安全考虑，他拒绝透露具体位置。 他在本周于X上“火出圈”的一条推文中分享道，这些硬币总共有500万枚，重量接近30吨。目前，该推文的浏览量已经达到1480万，并且这个数字还在不断增加。 根据美国铸币局的说法，现代美国5美分硬币由铜和镍两类金属制成，其成分是75%的铜和25%的镍。一枚5美分硬币重量恰好为5克，这意味着每枚硬币含有约3.75克铜和1.25克镍。 根据美国铸币局的年度报告，2024财年，美国铸币局制造一枚5美分硬币的成本为14美分——这一数字包含了金属原本的价值和包括人工在内其他生产成本。其中，一枚硬币的金属价值约为6美分——本身也已超过了硬币的面值。
C | 这意味着米切尔价值25万美元的5美分硬币，其金属价值(铜和镍)已达到了29万美元。 目前，铜的交易价格约为每公吨1万美元，镍的交易价格约为每吨1.5万美元。今年以来，铜价已累计上涨了约23%，而镍价则基本保持不变。
D | 米切尔的“大计划” 据米切尔介绍，其囤积这些5美分硬币的过程缓慢——花费了他和一个助手团队四个多月的时间。
E | 他表示，为了在这段时间内获得如此大量的硬币，他支付了每小时7.5美元的报酬，雇人前往多家银行将美元纸币兑换成五美分硬币。 “必须跑遍多家银行才能完成，”米切尔在接受采访时称，“虽然银行对个人兑换硬币数量没有明确限制，但多数银行库存有限——而且部分银行可能会限制大额硬币兑换，仅限账户持有人或收取额外手续费。” 那么，米切尔究竟为何要花费大功夫囤积数百万5美分硬币呢？ “这是对冲通胀的手段，”自称长期质疑法定货币价值的米切尔解释道。鉴于一枚实体5美分硬币熔化后的价值高于其面值，他认为这是相当稳妥的投资。“即便判断失误，硬币价值也永远是0.05美元，完全没有下行风险。
F | ” 正如米切尔在X平台所言：“这是一场不对称的赌注——押注美国铸币局终将再次贬值货币，押注金属稀缺与通胀会持续侵蚀美元价值，押注终有一日一袋五美分硬币的‘熔毁’价值将超越流通价值。” 当然，这最终需要有人去熔毁这些硬币——而根据美国现行法规，这样做是非法的。
G | 美国法律规定“任何人不得出口、熔毁或处理任何5美分硬币”，熔毁分币也是非法的，此类违规行为可能导致1万美元罚款和/或最高五年的监禁。 但米切尔似乎并不在意这些。米切尔指出，即便最坏情况下，他持有的25万美元5美分硬币仍将至少保持25万美元价值，且未来存在增值空间——例如当金属资源日益稀缺，或政府通过降低硬币实际镍含量进一步贬值五美分硬币时。 诚然，25万美元的名义价值确实会随时间推移保持不变，但有人仍可能质疑：这笔资金本可用于更高效的投资渠道——更不用说通货膨胀将导致其购买力持续缩水。
H | 但米切尔对囤积的镍币仍持乐观态度。“最优质的投资永远是零风险且收益巨大，”他表示，“我期待美国最终停用镍币，届时这些收藏品可按三到五倍价格转售，让我轻松赚个百万美元。” 截至2025年，尚未有政府机构或知名政客推动5美分硬币予以废除。
I | 不过关于停用1美分硬币的讨论已有所浮现，因此可以推测5美分硬币的命运也可能在未来受到质疑。
J | 在谈及1美分硬币时，米切尔还表示，自己曾收藏了2万磅1982年前铸造的铜质1美分硬币（含铜量超过90%）。这些巨量硬币与他的5美分硬币一同存放在同一个车库里。
Current article:http://ehe8.runtunpaixufenjuduishuang.pics/2hpjvi/20260826/80992.html
Published on:04:59:27
